Arizona’s scorching summer heat this year shattered records and shed light on the dire consequences of rising temperatures. From widespread power outages to a rise in heat-related deaths among vulnerable communities, the city of Phoenix became a national headline. The question on everyone’s mind was simple: How do people survive in such extreme conditions? However, the impact of extreme heat extends far beyond Arizona. This year, the world witnessed the tragic death of a young woman at a Taylor Swift concert in Brazil, where heat indexes exceeded 120 degrees. These incidents highlight the urgent need to address the increasingly dangerous effects of extreme heat on human health and wellbeing.
Jennifer Vanos, an associate professor in the School of Sustainability at Arizona State University, and her team have been studying extreme heat and its health implications. Their research, published in Nature Communications, challenges the current understanding of human survivability in high temperatures. For years, the prevailing belief was that a wet-bulb temperature of 35 degrees Celsius, or 95 degrees Fahrenheit, represented the upper limit for human survival. However, Vanos argues that this oversimplified measure fails to account for crucial factors such as age, activity level, and vulnerability factors.
Vanos and her team propose a more comprehensive model that considers variables like humidity, age, activity level, and sun exposure. By incorporating these factors into their analysis, they aim to determine not only the conditions that allow survival but also the conditions that enable people to live their lives without constant risk of heat-related illness. Taking into account the diverse ways in which individuals navigate the summer season, the researchers model multiple scenarios to provide a range of safe temperatures.
The research conducted by Vanos and her colleagues aims to redefine the concept of survivability. Rather than focusing solely on the ability to withstand extreme heat for a fixed duration, they seek to understand how people can live their lives comfortably in a warming climate. If a region only allows for sedentary behavior as a means of safety, it becomes an undesirable place to live. Instead, the researchers emphasize the importance of being able to spend time outdoors and pursue daily activities without a sustained rise in core body temperature.
The study’s findings were the result of collaboration between climate scientists and physiologists, highlighting the interplay between heat and human health. This interdisciplinary approach provides a more holistic understanding of the physiological and biophysical impacts of climate change on individuals. Ollie Jay, a professor at the University of Sydney, stresses the importance of moving away from conservative estimates and embracing a more realistic, human-centered model. By doing so, policymakers can make more informed decisions to mitigate the severe and widespread impacts of extreme heat.
The survivability ranges presented in the research offer valuable insights into the future. As temperatures continue to rise, there will be an increased demand for cooling infrastructure to ensure the safety and comfort of individuals. Personalized approaches to heat protection may also become essential, taking into account individual health conditions and medication use. Furthermore, the study suggests that heat-driven migration may become a significant factor as people seek more habitable and safe environments.
Vanos concludes by emphasizing the importance of recognizing that individual experiences of survivability vary greatly. What may be tolerable for a healthy young adult could be life-threatening for someone with underlying health conditions or taking specific medications. The study’s findings underscore the need for tailored approaches to protecting vulnerable populations, accounting for their unique circumstances and vulnerabilities.
The prevailing understanding of human survivability in extreme heat needs a comprehensive overhaul. By reevaluating the factors that contribute to heat-related illness and considering the diverse ways in which individuals navigate the summer season, we can better prepare for a future marked by rising temperatures. It is imperative that policymakers, researchers, and communities recognize the urgent need for action to mitigate the devastating impact of extreme heat on human health and wellbeing.